By Norman J. Ashford at al.
Аэропорт инжиниринг: планирование, проектирование и развитие аэропортов 21-го века. Издание 4-е.
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Additional info for Airport Engineering. Planning Design and Development of 21st Century Airports (4th edition)
Obtain the number of passengers per 1000 population that the airport has experienced in the past. 2. Compare the figure computed in step 1 with the number of passengers nationally per 1000 population 3. Compute the ratio of local to national rates, that is, Passengers/1000 population for airport Passengers/1000 population for nation 4. Obtain the national forecast of air passenger traffic per 1000 population for the design year 5. From steps 3 and 4 calculate the local passenger traffic per 1000 population.
Indeed, a version of this method is used in the United States to provide industry consensus on short-term industry trends to feed into the FAA National Forecast System (described elsewhere in this chapter). S. participants, then branching out to international participants. Participants are experts drawn from government, industry, academic, and private consulting firms representing different sectors of the travel industry in the United States and the developed world. These experts are invited to an expert workshop hosted by the TRB (5) to discuss the state of the economy and factors impacting the air transport industry in the short term.
A trend may be stable in terms of demand values or in terms of percentage of demand. For the former growth would be linear, and for the latter growth would be exponential. In other words, the trend of the historical demand may be linear or exponential in formulation; it also could be a number of mathematical formulations, or curves. After the time-series 30 Forecasting Air Transport Demand trend is identified, the forecast demand would simply be extrapolating the fitted trend into the future. The different types of trend curves can be better represented by their mathematical formulation on the computer.